Contested Seas, Unsettled Order: Great Power Rivalry and the Limits of ASEAN Centrality in the South China Sea
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36722/jaiss.v7i2.5707Keywords:
ASEAN Centrality, Great Power Rivalry, Minilateralism, South China Sea, Strategic HedgingAbstract
The South China Sea has become the primary arena through which the broader Sino-American rivalry is playing out, and in doing so it has placed ASEAN Centrality, long the organising principle of Southeast Asian diplomacy, under unprecedented strain. This article examines how great power competition has eroded ASEAN's institutional agency over the decade from 2016 to 2026. Drawing on qualitative document analysis and a tripartite theoretical framework, the study applies Neorealist, Neoliberal Institutionalist, and Constructivist lenses to account for ASEAN's growing inability to manage maritime disputes. The findings show that China's gray-zone coercion, the persistent failure of the Code of Conduct negotiations, and the proliferation of exclusive minilateral arrangements such as AUKUS and the Quad have collectively undermined the credibility of ASEAN-led multilateralism. Individual member states have responded by pursuing sharply divergent hedging and bandwagoning strategies, deepening the organisation's internal fractures. The article concludes that without meaningful institutional reform that moves beyond the rigid "ASEAN Way," ASEAN Centrality will remain an aspiration rather than a practical reality.
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